PM Test Center

While planning a project that has not been accomplished before at the company, your manager asks you to get a three point estimate from Shari, the lead designer. Shari provides you with an optimistic estimate (2 hours), a most likely estimate (4 hours), and a pessimistic estimate (12 hours). What must be the three point estimate for Shari’s task?

A. 5 hours
B. 6 hours
C. 10 hours
D. Not enough information and will need clarification from the manager

Answer: D. Not enough information and will need clarification from the manager
A three point estimate could be derived several ways. Two of the most common are the mean ((O+M+P)/3), which would give you 6 hours and PERT ((O+4M+P)/6), which would give you 5 hours. However, in this example, it is not clear what type of three point estimate to use.

Your client requests that you to use a Monte Carlo technique for the project. What are you being asked to do?

A. Create a histogram that ranks risks.
B. Estimate cost and time results by executing the project many times through a simulator.
C. Ignore minor risks and take our chances.
D. Monitor cost variances and use contingency funds when necessary.

Answer: B. Estimate cost and time results by executing the project many times through a simulator.
The Monte Carlo, a Quantitative Risk Analysis Technique, runs simulations to estimate cost and time. It uses many iterations to produce a probability distribution.

Joan has been assigned to manage a project to recondition ten school buses. Although her company has never reconditioned more than a single bus at a time, Joan feels she can still give somewhat accurate estimates by using:

A. Bottom-up estimating
B. Analogous estimating
C. Parametric estimating
D. Engineering estimating

Answer: C. Parametric estimating
Parametric estimating takes historical information available and scales it provide time and cost estimates. In this example, if a typical school bus reconditioning project takes twenty days and costs $10,000, then reconditioning ten of them will simply take 200 days at $100,000. The project manager may then use expert judgment to fine-tune the estimate for learning curves, overlapping tasks, etc.

Which of the following estimating types provides the most accuracy?

A. Parametric
B. Analogous
C. Bottom-up
D. Top-down

Answer: C. Bottom-up
Bottom-up estimating, which may also be called grass roots, engineering, or definitive estimating, will provide the most accuracy since activities are estimated with the greatest level of detail. However, that level of accuracy comes at a cost. In order to be more accurate than parametric and analogous, it will also take the longest amount of time to create.

Jamie, the project manager for creating a new product, recognizes that she will need help estimating. Since she has not managed a project like this before, she decides she will review past projects that company has completed for other products. This is an example of:

A. Analogous estimating
B. PERT
C. Expert judgment
D. Parametric estimating

Answer: A. Analogous estimating
Analogous estimating leverages historical information from a previous similar project. It is typically used when there are limited details on the project.

The PERT formula is typically calculated as:

A. (O+M+P)/6
B. (O+4M+P)/6
C. (O+M+P)/3
D. (O+4M+P)/3

Answer: B. (O+4M+P)/6
PERT is a weighted average, typically with emphasis on the most likely (M). PERT is a weighted average, typically with emphasis on the most likely (M). So if you are going to calculate 1x optimistic plus 4x most likely plus 1x pessimistic, then there are six variables. Therefore, you would divide by six to get a weighted estimate.

Which of the following estimating types takes the most amount of time to prepare?

A. Bottom up
B. Analogous
C. Parametric
D. Top down

Answer: A. Bottom up
Bottom up, also known as engineering, grass roots or definitive estimating, takes a substantial amount of time since it involves estimating each work package. The estimates are then rolled up to sub-project and overall project levels.