Three point estimate
While planning a project that has not been accomplished before at the company, your manager asks you to get a three point estimate from Shari, the lead designer. Shari provides you with an optimistic estimate (2 hours), a most likely estimate (4 hours), and a pessimistic estimate (12 hours). What must be the three point estimate for Shari’s task?
A. 5 hours
B. 6 hours
C. 10 hours
D. Not enough information and will need clarification from the manager
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Hi Gabe,
This was a tricky one, and I did it wrong! >:-) Nevertheless, I’m wondering if you did not mix up the most likely and the optimistic estimates?
Cyrille
The original question had optimistic and most likely transposed, however, it doesn’t change the answer. I just fixed it so it should read properly now.
Thanks again! What would I do without you?
My instructor advise is if we have 3 estimates always apply PERT, thus 5h is the correct answer.
That is a wrong assumption to make. A three-point estimate is a blanket term in this case with PERT being just one method. If PERT is not asked for specifically, then you should ask for clarification on what formula to use.
Please note that PMBOK4 mentions only PERT based calculation under Three Point estimates ie. 6.4.2.4 section!!
There are about 60-80 questions that aren’t even in the PMBOK. That’s not a good indicator of what the exam is looking for.